New Rochelle, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

066
FXUS61 KOKX 090701
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
301 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary near the region
through Thursday. The front should then push south of the area
Friday into Saturday. A weak frontal system may pass to the north
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Most shower activity early this morning has remained to our
north with dry conditions to start the day. A more well defined
shortwave trough attempts to dig down across the Great Lakes
this afternoon and evening. There may be some subtle pieces of
energy ahead of the main trough this afternoon and early
evening. Sea breeze convergence along with the stalled front
will be the main trigger for any afternoon convection. Coverage
of showers/storms looks less compared to Tuesday afternoon and
evening. The convective focus looks most likely south of the
area across the Middle Atlantic where an MCV will pass through
late in the day and early evening. This is also where SPC has
focused the higher severe thunderstorm risk (slight). PWATs may
end up a bit lower than recent days ranging from 1.75-2.00
inches, but high enough that any shower/storm that develops will
have potential to produce locally heavy downpours. WPC has
maintained a marginal risk for excessive rainfall supporting a
continued localized flash flood threat.

Slight modification to the air mass is anticipated with guidance
continuing to signal 850 temps about 1-2C cooler than on Tuesday.
Highs today will reach the upper 80s for much of the area with some
of the usual warmer locations in NE NJ and NYC metro around 90
degrees. Dew points still look to be in the lower 70s this morning
with potential of them mixing out slightly in the afternoon,
particularly across NE NJ and NYC metro. The SW flow away from
the sea breeze is weak, but there is enough dry air to mix down
to allow dew points to fall into the upper 60s. Max heat indices
overall should peak in the lower 90s with a few spots briefly
hitting 95, mainly in urban NE NJ and parts of the NYC metro.
This looks mostly isolated and not widespread enough to warrant
the issuance of a heat advisory.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase tonight as the upper
trough settles over the northeast. The slight amplification in the
flow should help pull up another wave of low pressure along the
stalled front over the area. There is also some jet stream
support as the region may lie within the right entrance region
of a 90-100 kt 250 mb jet streak over northern New England.
Showers should increase in coverage late tonight with some
embedded thunderstorms possible. The activity will have some
movement, limited flooding potential, but still cannot rule out
some minor flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Showers may persist early Thursday morning, but the associated
weak wave should push east shortly after day break. The upper
trough axis will swing across New England the rest of Thursday.
The frontal boundary that has been nearly stationary will
continue to remain nearby. Some uncertainty in convective
coverage in the afternoon and evening, but the threat persists
for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. WPC
has maintained the marginal risk for excessive rainfall on
Thursday. SPC has much of the area in a marginal risk for a
severe thunderstorm as well, with the main threat damaging wind
gusts.

The upper trough pushes offshore Thursday night. Heights should
begin rising into Friday with the stalled front
weakening/washing out. The flow aloft is relatively flat, but
subtle energy may be enough to develop scattered
showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, mainly away
from the coast.

High temperatures on Thursday are expected to be a bit cooler
than recent days with readings in the upper 70s/lower 80s east
and lower to middle 80s elsewhere. It should be a bit warmer on
Friday with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes made to the forecast Saturday through next
Tuesday.

Most guidance shows a weak ridge building Saturday. Global
guidance still varies on solutions Sunday into Monday, but are
starting to point to another frontal system at some point during
this time frame.

Generally southerly flow is expected for most of the long-term
period. This should keep dewpoints and atmospheric moisture high and
continue chances for daily showers and thunderstorms through
Monday. Mainly slight chance POPs east with low-end chance POPs
west where daily instability from daytime heating could be
stronger.

Temperatures through the long-term period will generally be close to
just above climatological norms. Highs each day will be in the
mid/upper 80s to around 90 in the warmest spots. Lows each
night will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. However, the difference
between NBM`s 25th and 75th percentiles for max temperatures is
about 15 degrees Saturday through Monday, further highlighting
the uncertainty and disagreement among the guidance in the long-
term period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A stationary frontal boundary remains within the region through
the TAF period.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. However,
occasional MVFR conditions are possible with showers and
thunderstorms at times during the TAF period.

Much uncertainty with the exact timing of showers and thunderstorms.
Overall, these look more probable for the last half of the TAF
period, around and after 00Z Thursday.

Winds will be generally S-SW near 5-10 kt for much of the TAF
period. Some gusts to near 20 kt will be possible at times. Some
terminals will be variable with their wind direction with lighter
wind speeds at 5 kts or less particularly for the late night into
morning hours.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely to refine the timing of showers and thunderstorms
which could vary by a few hours compared to TAF.

Amendments possible to include wind gusts to near 20 kt if they
become more frequent.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late tonight: Potential MVFR with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms. IFR possible at times. Otherwise, mainly VFR
outside of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Potential MVFR with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. IFR possible at times. Otherwise, mainly VFR
outside of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms, mainly near and northwest of NYC terminals.
Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms, mainly northwest of NYC terminals. Otherwise,
mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms, mainly near and northwest of NYC terminals.
Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient into the upcoming weekend will bring
winds and seas below SCA levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Any shower or thunderstorm today into Thursday has the potential
to produce locally heavy downpours. WPC has maintained a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall with a continued localized
flash flooding threat.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk is forecast at all ocean beaches
into this evening due to to incoming 3-4 ft/7-8s swell. The
moderate risk continues for all but the NYC beaches for on
Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BR/DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...